Here you will get the complete picture of Parties, States all on one page. Complete coverage of the Election 2009 in one single page.

Analysis of Trailing Parties (Second Place behind the winner) across the states:

Looking at the Winners/ Leading Parties versus Trailing parties it is pretty clear that Indian National Congress has swept the 2009 Elections. As per the Election Comission of India Data Congress is winning/ leading in 205 seats and it is the second in as many as 141 seats. This is a huge number and if going forward Congress is able to crack 50% of these seats it will be able to cross the magical figure 272 mark by itself. As every one is gloating over the winners, looking at the trailing candidates throw some fascinating insights in this election.

Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) is also emerging as a strong national player with them leading/ winning 20 seats but more importantly the part was second in as many as 50 seats across Uttar Pradesh. On an average the margin for defeat for BSP was about 54,000 votes. So it is too early to write off BSP. In contrast Samajwadi Part managed to come second only in 14 seats, BJP in 12 and INC in 6.

Trailing Party	Grand Total		Leading/Winning Party	Total
Indian National Congress	141		Indian National Congress	205
Bharatiya Janata Party	112		Bharatiya Janata Party	117
Bahujan Samaj Party	50		Samajwadi Party	24
Communist Party of India (Marxist)	37		Janata Dal (United)	20
Rashtriya Janata Dal	21		Bahujan Samaj Party	20
Telugu Desam	19		All India Trinamool Congress	19
Nationalist Congress Party	17		Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam	18
Samajwadi Party	16		Communist Party of India (Marxist)	15
All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam	13		Biju Janata Dal	14
Communist Party of India	11		Shivsena	11
Independent	11		Independent	11
All India Trinamool Congress	8		All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam	10
Lok Jan Shakti Party	8		Nationalist Congress Party	9
Shivsena	7		Telugu Desam	5
Telangana Rashtra Samithi	7		Rashtriya Lok Dal	5
Pattali Makkal Katchi	7		Communist Party of India	4
Shiromani Akali Dal	6		Shiromani Akali Dal	4

 

 

% of votes polled and counted

Party	3:00 PM	4:00 PM	5:00 PM
INC	30	29.47	29.10
BJP	19.65	19.39	19.18
BSP	5.89	6.05	6.08
CPM	5.10	5.19	5.33
NCP	2.14	2.13	2.12
CPI	1.36	1.38	1.41
RJD	0.94	1.04	1.10
Others	34.90	35.35	35.69

 

 

Results from the Exit Polls

Statewise Exit Poll Results 2009:

UP SP 22, BSP 32, Congress 10 and BJP 13, MP NDA 23, UPA 3 only; AP Congress 22, TDP 14, Orissa Congress 10, BJP 3, BJD 8; Punjab Congress 7, BJP + Akali Dal 6,Delhi prediction is that Congress will lead the Capital with 5 seats and BJP will lag behind with 2 seats predicted there. Gujarat contnues to be loyal to Narendra Modi and BJP is predicted to win 18 and Congress only 8, Maharashtra seems to bunk the anti incumbancy with Congress winning 15 and NCP predicted to win 14 seats. The divisive politics that seemed to be a master stroke for a while does not seem to work at least in the Exit Polls.

Rajasthan is going congress way with Congress predicted to gain 14 seats and 11 seats for BJP. So the trend that brought Ashok Gehlot is still continuing and BJP is still struggling in this state.

In short Most of the Hindi heartland like UP, Bihar, Gujarat (Modi Magic) and MP are going with NDA and states like Rajasthan, WB, Punjab, Delhi and most of the bigger South Indian states are predicted to go to UPA. Now in short it all depends on the Left parties and they are not on board for UPA then it will be impossible for anyone to form a government. It was being said that left will only support a congress government if Dr. Manmohan Singh is not at the helm of affairs. Media reports are now coming in that Congress is pretty firm on their stand that if they have to form a government Dr. Manmohan Singh will be the Prime Minister. Now if the table turn on May 16th and NDA comes to power then all this calculations will go for a toss. If recent upward trend in the stock market is an indication then the situation does favour UPA.

National Picture through various Exit Polls by Television Channels in India.

UPA 191 seats, NDA 180 seats, Left Parties 38 and others 134. Aaj Tak - Headlines Today TV Today Exit Poll result.

NDA 208, UPA 182, 3rd Front 109 Others 42 as per Zee Business Research Cell.

UPA 139, NDA 165, 3rd Front 80, 4th front 36, others 4 Star News Nielsen Survey.

NDA 194, UPA 195, Left 34, SP 22 India TV C Voter Exit Poll.

NDA 165 - 185, UPA 185 - 205, 3rd Fromt 110 - 120 , 4th Front 25 to 35 , others 20 to 30 CNN IBN Poll.

Looks like the UPA has a slight edge over NDA but the margin is so slim that the sampling and non sampling errors can swing it either way, so it is still too close to call.

It is also predicted that after ruling over West Bengal for decades left is supposed to lost its hold just that bit and lose 25% of the current tally.

Congress is predicting 160 to 175 seats for itsel and 168 for BJP as per their internal poll, BJP on the other hand is predicting that they will win 220 odd seats and Congress will have to be satisfied with 170 odd.

It seems that the researchers hired by both the parties are playing to the galleries :-)

Some More Details from the Star News Survey:

BJP 153, JDU 17, Shiv Sena 9, TRS 5, LGP 4, AGP 4, TDP 10, BJD 10, RLD 3, Akali Dal 2, Independents 8 and hoping that BSP joins them it will not take NDA across the Majority Mark and will be stuck at 253. But at these levels the statistical errors come into picture and on 16th it can go either way. SO STILL IT IS TOO CLOSE TO CALL.

Madhya Pradesh with 29 seats is expected to go the NDA way with 24 seats seems to sweeping the state and UPA is projected get only 5 seats.

Bihar with 40 seats NDA 28, UPA 1, 5th Front 10 and others 1

NDTV Exit Poll is predicting:

Andhra Pradesh: UPA to sweep the state with 29 seats, NDA will have to se satisfied with 2 and 3rd front is predicted to get 10 seats. Looks like the saffron march of BJP has not moved beyond Karnataka.

Tamil Nadu: NDA 0, UPA 20, 3rd Front 18

Bihar NDA 33, UPA 1, 3rd Front 0, 4th Front 5, Others 1.

 

As per Times Now Survey for Rajasthan the predictions are Congress 13, BJP 10, Others 2 out of 25 seats. Uttar Pradesh UP Congress 13, SP 23, BSP 28, SP 35, BJP 17

As per CNN IBN & Dainik Bhaskar survey conducted by CSNS in Karnataka BJP will still lead Congress and share of votes for Congress and JDS is expected to fall.

The Times of India Exit Poll is predicting Congress Led UPA to secure a lead. Congress projected ahead in exit polls

These are early days yet and there are major difference between three exit polls.Looks like that this race is also too close to call and many surveys might bite the dust. In 2004 Lok Sabha Elections too almost all the exit pools predicted a victory for BJP led NDA and when the votes were actually counted it was Congress led UPA that came to power and ruled for the next 5 years too!!
This will be an interesting evening as more exit poll results come out.

All the news media are now past the Election Commission deadline for Exit Polls for Indian General Elections 2009 to elect the next Lok Sabha (The Indian Parliament) are out and there is a scramble for the Polls and this is how it is playing out in various news media.

The actual counting of votes will take place on 16th of May but the exit poll predictions will be out today evening and the entire country will be glued to their TV sets to see if their votes have made an impact and which party will be ruling the country.

Exit Polls 2009

Currently TV Today Network has come out with national numbers with the ruling UPA that is backed by congress party is predicted to get 191 seats, NDA the alliance led by BJP is predicted to get 180 seats, left that was a part of UPA in 2004 elections is predicted to get 38 seats and 134 seats are predicted to be won by other regional parties and independents.

In short it is a hung parliament like in the previous elections and the era of coalitions is there to stay.

All the other news outlets will be coming out with their national figures shortly.

The Times of India has a great feature where they have reproduced pages from their print editions for 1957 to 2004. Click here to go on a long drive into History of Indian Elections.

Useful Links to Various Sites about Exit Polls:

IBN Live : It is a Photo Finish

Hindustan Times : Too Close to Call

Guardian UK : Congress Ahead of BJP

Times Now