In Depth Analysis of Indian Election Results

General Elections 2009 to select the 17th Lok Sabha in India got over and on 14th May 2009 the final results were decleared and Congress Led UPA won a majority. The big news stopped just at that, but the analysis of voter trends reveal a lot about India as a country and some of the challenges facing Indian Democracy. A case of Buxar where the winner got only 22% of the total votes polled.

Did you know:

55% of the total valid votes counted in the country accrued to the losing candidates? or that all the winning candidates got only 44% of the total votes polled in India? or that out of the 540 parliamentary constituencies in India, only in 119 seats the winning candidate won more than 50% of the total votes polled.

In effect in 421 seats there were more votes polled against the winning candidates than for him.

A Total of 119 candidates were elected to the Indian Parliament with more than 50% of the votes polled in their contituency. This basically means that in the rest of the 421 constituencies where elections were held in India for the Loksabha 2009; there were more votes polled against the winning candidates then for them.

This is not the first time this is happening but after witnessing 17 lok sabha elections it is imperative that there is a requirement to look at the implications of this to the manner in which elections are fought in India. Winning of the candidate not only depends on the capacity of the person or the political party that he/ she represents but also the age old caste system that is so deeply rooted into the Indian fabric. In this land of multiple religion, in many constituencies religion also becomes very important.

There are various religious/ castes that are known to vote for their leader or en mass for a political party the age of dictum of divide and rule comes into play every time an election is held in the country.

The only means of winning a seat is not to win majority of the votes polled, but to get that proverbial 1 vote more than the nearest condidate. THough it is mentioned that electorate is fickle minded and media also claims their pound of flesh saying that because of proacive nature of news media the political parties are always on their feet and anti incumbance is on the rise.

A deeper probe reveals that all these assumptions might not be that true. There are cases in at least four major states in India where intelligent alliances or introduction of another strong party has swing the fortunes of political parties (though with some shift in votes preferences) and changed the composition of Indian political situation.

As many as 28 consituencies were there in Election to the 17th Lok Sabha where the winner got less than 30% of votes polled but still managed to win because of the caste / religious fractures that exist in Indian society and are exploited to the maximum by the various candidates and parties alike.

Let us take the example of Buxar parliamentary constituency in the state of Bihar. There were a total of 21 candidates in teh fray for this seat and the seat was won by Jagada Nand Singh of Rashtrya Janta Dal and he polled 1,32,614 seats, the runner up Lal Muni Choubey of BJP polled 2,238 votes less than Singh and lost the election. Shyam Kushwaha of Bahujan Samaj Party got just 5,469 votes less than Singh and ended up third. Dadan Singh fighting the elections as an independent got 9,639 seats less than the winner but ended up 4th. In effect the number 2,3,4 together got almost three times the vote secured by the winner!!

This is one extreme situation but a deep dive into the election results does give up a picture of India that is very different from the one that we see on the map or even the one that we see in the major metros in India.

At the very core it is a divided nation and looking at the compulsions of the Indian Politics, it is in the best interest of all the political parties that it remains this way.

A true representative government that is constituted by parliamentariens that have the support of true majority is still a far fetched dream for Indians.

This fractured nature of the Indian society is the main source of the political apathy that have been witnessed by the media and public at large at numerous occassion, as the leaders in most of the parts of teh country are comfortable being the leader of their voters and try and keep their vote banks (Big Block Voters) intact and can easily affort to be apathetic the majority of the electorate (read citizens) as the figures shared are of those who voted. Just less than half of the electorate do not even exercise their franchise.

So in effect the main mantra for winning elections in India is to "Influence about 10% to 20% of the total citizens and ensure that come out and vote" and ensure that the rest of them are fractured through placing strong candidates of their caste, creed, language or religion in the fray and winning comfortably.

Click here for the list of 119 seats of the 17th Indian Parliament where the winner won more than 50% of the valid votes polled.

If we look at developed democracies across the world there are checks and balances that are ingrained into the system to ensure that the political parties do not work at cross purposes to the majority; by tweaking the definition of democracy itseld.

Electing the winning candidate in Australia

To ensure that the elected representative does stand for the majority of views Australia follows a system where a winner is not announced till he/she obtains more than 50% of votes and this is how it is done:

How the House of Representatives votes are counted in Australia ?

First, all the number ‘1’ votes are counted for each candidate. If a candidate gets more than 50% of the formal first preference votes then they are immediately elected.

If no candidate has an absolute majority, the candidate with the fewest votes is excluded. These votes are then transferred to the other candidates according to the second preferences shown by voters on these ballot papers.

If still no candidate has an absolute majority, again the remaining candidate with the fewest votes is excluded and these votes are transferred. This process will continue until one candidate has more than half the total votes cast and is declared ‘elected’.

This voting system is called preferential voting and has been used in Australian federal elections since 1918.

Electing the winning candidate in Hungary

Single-member constituencies are based on the absolute majority principle, i.e. the candidate having obtained more than half of the votes cast in the constituency shall become Member of Parliament. In the absence of such candidate, a second election round is held in that constituency. For the second election round, the law does not specify absolute majority, thus the seat is obtained by the candidate obtaining the highest number of votes.

More inside this election analysis:

Home Page of Indian Election Analysis

Lowest margin of victory in Election 2009.

Votes polled across various states and power of votes.

List of 191 constituencies where winner got more than 50% of the total votes polled.

Fractured Electorate A case of Buxar in Bihar, winner got only 22% of the total votes polled!

List of symbols used in Lok Sabha Election 2009